The Wiganist has analysed the available data on the 2026 Makerfield by-election and offers the following assessment.
The 2026 Wigan Council elections were held across several wards within the Makerfield constituency. However, prior to examining the figures, two caveats should be noted. First, Makerfield includes only small portions of Golborne & Lowton West and Ince, as well as a minor section of Leigh West that is not covered in this analysis; as a result, the true constituency-wide local election total would differ slightly. Second, turnout across the wards analysed in the 2026 Wigan Council elections stood at 38%. It is highly likely that, given intensified campaigning by party organisations and increased national media attention, turnout at a by-election would be higher.
Cutting to the chase
Nevertheless, in the wards entirely within Makerfield, the state of play at the outset of the by-election is as follows:
| Party | Votes | Vote share |
|---|---|---|
| Reform | 17,510 | 49.9% |
| Labour | 9,419 | 26.8% |
| Green | 3,606 | 10.3% |
| Conservative | 2,542 | 7.2% |
| Liberal Democrat | 1,164 | 3.3% |
| Independents | 855 | 2.4% |
Now, before analysing the two Survation constituency-level polls, we should acknowledge some further points.
The Burnham factor
Josh Simons MP, the previous incumbent, secured the Makerfield constituency in 2024 with 18,202 votes. We suspect Andy Burnham may surpass that figure in 2026, given his track record of outperforming Labour’s national vote share. Burnham secured 66% of the vote in Wigan (note, not Makerfield) at the 2024 Greater Manchester Mayoral election, around 32% above Labour’s national performance in the 2024 general election. Clearly, there is a “Burnham factor”, and the “Vote Andy For Us” campaign appears to reinforce this advantage for Labour. In our view, if Reform are to win, they will need to expand their support beyond the levels achieved in the local election campaign.
The Rob Kenyon factor
It is a fact that Rob Kenyon has faced significant personal attacks during the course of the campaign. In national polling data from 2024, there is already a modest anti-Reform voting bias even among right-leaning women, and these lines of attack—most visibly on programmes such as BBC Question Time—may have further affected Reform’s prospects in Makerfield. In his favour, Kenyon now benefits from the backing of a strong national party machine, but, from a strategic standpoint, the allegations have been less than ideal for Reform’s campaign.
The Restore Britain and Green factors
A third negative for Reform is the emergence of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain, a right-wing party. In the two Survation polls cited above, Restore are polling at around 7–8% of the vote. While not all of this support will be drawn directly from Reform—some will come from previously disengaged voters and even Conservatives—the existence of a credible right-wing alternative complicates Reform’s path to victory. For Rob Kenyon to win, that Restore vote will need to be squeezed. Reform’s messaging in the final phase of the campaign will need to be sharp, ensuring that right-leaning Restore supporters understand that a split on the right could hand victory to Burnham. Ultimately, the final week of the campaign will serve as an acid test of Reform’s ability to neutralise the Restore challenge, and a key indicator of the effectiveness of the party’s national campaign operation.
Still, there is a potential weakness in the Burnham camp, namely the Greens. The Survation polling places the Green vote at around 2–3%, but that figure is open to question for two reasons. First, at the last Makerfield election in 2024 the Greens secured 4.4% of the vote share, and since then they have risen in the polls nationally, suggesting a larger base than before 2024. On that basis, the Survation estimate appears low. Second, in the most recent Wigan Council elections, the Greens secured around 10% of the vote across the wards covering Makerfield. While some Green voters will opt for tactical voting, a significant proportion are unlikely to support Labour under any circumstances.
Final thoughts
While the bookmakers make Burnham the odds-on favourite, the race is clearly tight and remains a two-horse contest. There is little reason to fundamentally doubt the Survation polling, particularly given the scale of Burnham’s overperformance relative to Labour’s national position. However, if the Restore vote consolidates behind Reform, and the Green vote proves stronger than anticipated (or merely in line with their recent local council performance), it would become extremely uncomfortable for Labour.
Photo credit: Gary Calton